Much has been made of Jay Ajayi‘s 200-yard running sprees, which kicked off when he bolted for 204 yards and two touchdowns in the Dolphins’ win over the Steelers down in Miami earlier this season. But what does that mean? Can Ajayi, who has been visibly banged-up and — save for one huge day in Buffalo — has slowed down in the second half of the season, go off again?

He might need to. Because there are no indications that Adam Gase’s defense will be able to hold the Pittsburgh offense down enough to win without rushing for over 100 yards and eating clock. Dolphins defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is garnering much attention in this cycle of the coaching carousel, but his unit ranks 18th in points allowed and 29th overall. Obviously, points are more important than yards — the Dolphins often have held the fort without letting it fall. That group faces its toughest task this weekend, and could really use Reshad Jones.

An 11-year-old could tell you the Big Three for the Steelers are the key to the game (… after he or she kicks your but in “Star Wars: Battlefront 3”). Yet, without disrespecting the other two, lately Pittsburgh’s fortunes have been tied to the Big One — and I’m not talking about Big Ben. Not everyone can tell you that Le’Veon Bell — not David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott — led the league in scrimmage yards per game this season. Bell averaged nearly 160 yards per game this season. Joseph’s D performed admirably in the October faceoff with Bell — well, sort of, limiting the game’s most dynamic back to “only” 108 yards on 16 touches and a two-point conversion. Game situation dictated that Bell only get 10 carries. Think his workload will double Sunday morning, with Miami’s suspect run defense having no answers. #MIAvsPIT

Giants at Packers rounds out one of the most fun football weekends of the year. This is also the third matchup of teams in the Wild Card Round that already faced each other during the regular season. Green Bay won the initial meeting, 23-16, in a game that really wasn’t that close. New York’s offense struggled to move the ball at all ( shocker), totaling a paltry 221 yards on that Sunday evening. The Packers outgained them by 185 yards. The time of possession was even worse, with Green Bay holding the ball nearly 37 minutes.

But much has changed since then. Which leads me to the two most important developments that could lead to a Giants upset:

1) The Packers‘ secondary is a M.A.S.H. unit right now. Sam Shields is on IR. Damarious Randalland Quinten Rollins, the team’s top two corners this season, are both looking dicey for this game. Their absence — or limited effectiveness — could kickstart the New York offense.
2) Big Blue’s defense has been playing out of its mind for 10 games. They’ve only allowed 400 yards in a game once since that loss in Lambeau, and even that came two months ago.

So, can the Giants do it? Can they pull off the road playoff win at Lambeau, as they did in the 2007 NFC Championship and 2011 Divisional Round? I don’t think so. Putting aside the fact that Aaron Rodgers has produced the most stunning six-pack of games from a quarterback in recent memory, there are other factors at play here. Only Rollins was healthy for that first meeting in Week 5, thus Green Bay wasn’t playing with a full deck then. And Eli Manning isn’t playing at the same level as he was in 2011. Are the offensive failures all his fault? Not even close. Yet, if his defense doesn’t play a perfect game, Manning might be forced to put up 28 points to win — something New York has only accomplished once this entire season. #NYGvsGB