In what was billed as a potential AFC Championship Preview during the off season, the beleaguered Cleveland Browns head east to take on the Undefeated New England Patriots in a late afternoon matchup. There is not a lot of history with these two teams as this will be only the 25th time they have met. Shockingly, the Browns lead the all-time 13-11. The most memorable matchup occurred on New Year’s Day 1995 when then Browns head coach Bill Belichick won his only playoff game with that franchise against an upstart Patriots squad led by Bill Parcells. Since that day, the Browns would not win another playoff game and the Patriots would go on to 10 Super Bowl trips winning 6 Lombardi trophies.
Having spent the entire off-season reading press clipping on how great they were going to be, the Browns (2-4) enter this game facing the real possibility that their season could be over well before Thanksgiving. Loaded with big name talent on both sides of the ball, Cleveland has yet to find consistency offensively under first year head coach Freddie Kitchens.
The Patriots (7-0) enter this game after a convincing beat down of the New York Jets on Monday Night. While the Patriots offense continues to go through roster changes, New England’s defense has been stellar smothering opposing offenses and is putting up historic defensive numbers.
While this could be considered a mismatch, any thing can happen on a Sunday so in yet another futile attempt to be non-bias and analytical, both teams were broken down in key areas to see how they will match up against each other and which one may have the key to a victory.
Quarterback – PATRIOTS: While age and supporting cast are certainly making New England’s Tom Brady look mortal, Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield has looked every bit as bad as we would expect to see out a Browns quarterback. At this point in the season, the only quarterbacks that are rated lower than Mayfield are Miami’s Josh Rosen and New York’s Sam Darnold………Not good company to keep.
Running Backs – PUSH: Led by second year back Nick Chubb, the Browns have gotten some decent production out of their running backs this year. While the Patriots’ running backs have out gained their Browns counterparts through Week 7, the health of New England’s backfield does even out this matchup.
Wide Receivers – BROWNS: Cleveland’s Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry are probably the most dynamic pair of WRs on any NFL Roster….well….on paper anyway. Performance wise, they barely have more yards than New England’s trio of Edelman, Dorsett, and Meyers and, surprisingly, have less touchdowns than the Patriots receiving corps. The Browns’ inconsistent quarterback plays heavily into their paltry stats but make no mistake there is quite a bit of talent on Cleveland’s side.
Tight Ends – PUSH: Statistically the Browns and Patriots tight ends have been relatively even up to this point of the season. The addition of Ben Watson should provide a bit of a boost for New England as the season goes on.
Offensive Line – PUSH: Though injuries have ravaged the Patriots up front, they have performed very similarly, for the most part, with their Browns’ counterparts. Both offensive lines will be challenged this week.
Defensive Front Seven – PATRIOTS: While the Browns’ Myles Garrett is a beast of a human, the Patriots front seven, led by the “Boogeymen”, have been far more dominant getting to opposing quarterbacks and shutting down running games.
Secondary – PATRIOTS: Both secondaries are playing well from a yardage allowed standpoint, but the Patriots are significantly better at allowing a lower opposing completion percentage, allowing a lower opposing passer rating, and are leading the league in interceptions by a wide margin.
Special Teams – PUSH: New England’s special team unit has been more explosive with game changing plays but both units have been relatively even in all other aspects.
Coaching – PATRIOTS: Only the Cleveland Browns can promote a guy from basically scrubbing toilets to head coach in a matter of 7 months. Whatever magic that Freddie Kitchens had as offensive coordinator in 2018 seems to have faded away quickly under high expectations and a star-studded roster.
If we assign 2 points for every category (1 point per team for draws) this is how it lines up:
Betting Line: Patriots -12 ½
Keys to a Patriots Victory:
1) Don’t Fall Asleep Against the Wide Receivers: While it’s true that the Browns are struggling at the quarterback position, the Patriots need to make sure they are not taking for granted that Cleveland has wide receivers that can easily turn a short catch into a long touchdown.
2) Run the Damn Ball: Led by Myles Garrett, the Browns are 9th in the league in quarterback sacks. While this sounds like bad news for the Patriots, Cleveland is also ranked 30th against the run. Even though running the ball has been a struggle for New England, this might be the opportunity to commit to ground game to slow down the pass rush.
3) Stay Aggressive on the Defensive Front Seven: The Patriots are coming off a game where they very well may have caused permanent mental damage to Jets’ starting Quarterback Sam Darnold. This week they are facing another young quarterback who might be on the brink of a similar mental breakdown. The Patriots need to stay with what has made them successful and unleash the Boogeymen.
Though this game may favor the Patriots on paper, the Browns do have the offensive talent to make this game interesting. However, if New England takes an early multi-score lead, this game does have the potential of getting out of hand at Cleveland’s expense.
The Knuckles Prediction: Patriots 24 – Browns 13
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