Draft Day: Mock Drafts Revisited

Lets hope all AFC North front offices have this reaction draft weekend

About 28 days ago (which is the equivalent of 1000 mock drafts), I analyzed the AFC North draft predictions of the 14 most famous or loudest mockers in the media today. How do their draft boards look today compared to four weeks ago? Lets take a look. Below is a cliff notes version of the previous analysis:

#12 Cleveland Browns: DT Danny Shelton

#19 Cleveland Browns: OT Ereck Flowers or a wide receiver

#21 Cincinnati Bengals: OT Andrus Peat

#22 Pittsburgh Steelers: OLB “Bud” Dupree or possibly a cornerback

#26 Baltimore Ravens: WR Jaelen Strong or a cornerback

Listed below are today’s most recent AFC North mock draft picks from the same cast of characters. As mentioned in the earlier version, expect the experts to be right on zero to 25% of their picks, so a few of these predictions might actually be correct… but just a few.

Cleveland Browns

Pick 12

Danny Shelton DT WA (6)

DeVante Parker WR Louisville (5)

Breshad Perriman WR Central FL (2)

Brandon Scherff OG Iowa (1)

By Position: WR (7), DT (6), OG (1)

Pick 19

Malcom Brown DT TX (4)

Breshad Perriman WR Central FL (3)

Arik Armstead DT OR (2)

Eddie Goldman DT FSU (2)

Danny Shelton DT WA (1)

Nelson Agholor WR USC (1)

Ereck Flowers OT MN (1)

By Position: DT (9), WR (4), OT (1)

OT Ereck Flowers is rumored to be fading, but we will find out tonight. Some teams aren’t buying it. The mockers have replaced him with a number of defensive tackles at the 19 spot. The Browns’ 12th pick hasn’t changed much with Parker and Shelton leading the way, but Shelton won’t be available at #19 as predicted by some four weeks ago.

My prediction: I’ll repeat what I said four weeks ago: Expect a wide receiver and a defensive force to put on a Browns hat by the end of the first round.

Cincinnati Bengals

Pick 21

Andrus Peat OT Stanford (4)

Dorial Green-Beckham WR Mizzou (2)

Landon Collins SS AL (1)

Ereck Flowers OT Miami (1)

Malcolm Brown DT TX (1)

Shane Ray DE Mizzou (1)

DJ Humphries OT FL (1)

Randy Gregory DE NE (1)

Jake Fisher OT OR (1)

Bud Dupree OLB KY (1)

By Position: OT (7), DT/DE (3), WR (2), SS (1), OLB (1)

Four weeks later, the mockers continue to be all over the map when trying to figure out the Bengals pick at 21. The consensus pick is Peat or another an offensive tackle, or they will bypass an OT if someone unexpected falls to them.

My prediction: Unless someone like “Bud” Dupree falls to them, they will go with the best available offensive tackle, likely Peat. Green-Beckham, although talented, is a major risk off-the-field.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick 22

Marcus Peters CB Washington (6)

Randy Gregory DE NE (2)

Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest (2)

Landon Collins SS Alabama (1)

Bud Dupree OLB Kentucky (1)

Jalen Collins CB LSU (1)

Bryan Jones CB UConn (1)

By Position: CB (10), DE (2), SS (1), OLB (1)

“Bud” was the consensus pick at 22 before his stock skyrocketed, which leaves CB as the most likely pick for the Steelers. All eyes are on Marcus Peters or Keven Johnson if Peters is gone.

My prediction: If Peters isn’t available, the Steelers will take the best player at a position of need, whether cornerback, safety, or a DE/OLB rusher. Gregory was high on everyone’s list four weeks ago (pun intended) and could easily drop to 22. Of course Peters has also scared a few GMs, so it will be interesting to see where both of those players end up.

Baltimore Ravens

Pick 26

Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin (5)

Marcus Peters CB Washington (2)

Breshad Perriman WR Central Florida (2)

Jaelen Strong WR Arizona (2)

Nelson Agholor WR USC (1)

Todd Gurley RB Georgia (1)

Devin Smith WR OSU (1)

By Position: RB (6), WR (6), CB (2)

Jaelen Strong has taken a nose dive lately and is no longer the favorite to be the 26th pick. The majority of mockers seem to be leaning Melvin Gordon, or a variety of wide receivers. Perriman is interesting, because some also have him going #12 or 19 to the Browns.

My Prediction: The Ravens still need cornerback depth, but with two solid corners locked up under contract, the incoming corner might not be starting. First round corners generally have large egos. They will most likely go best available tall WR mainly due to the nature of Mark Trestman’s offensive philosophy.