Bills (2-3) at Texans (2-3): 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: HOU -8.5 | Matchup quality: 41.3 (of 100)
Mike Rodak’s pick: The Texans have blitzed opposing quarterbacks the eighth most this season, which spells trouble for rookie Josh Allen, who has an NFL-worst 1.6 passer rating and 21.9 completion percentage when facing pressure. The Bills tried to mask that weakness in a win last Sunday over Tennessee by running the ball on the highest percentage of plays of any NFL team this season, but that will be a taller task against a Texans defense that is fourth-best against the run. Texans 20, Bills 7
Sarah Barshop’s pick: Houston’s defense has shown improvement — especially in the secondary — the past two weeks and has a good chance to take a step forward on Sunday against the Bills’ league-worst passing offense. The Bills are averaging just 121.8 passing yards per game and have allowed an NFL-leading 22 sacks this season, an area in which this defense should be able take advantage. Texans 21, Bills 14
FPI win projection: HOU, 78.2 percent. The Bills’ offensive efficiency is currently 16.9, the lowest in the league this season. Only four teams have posted a lower offensive efficiency in a full season since tracking began in 2006, and none have since 2012.
What to watch for in fantasy: Expect Tre’Davious White to be glued to DeAndre Hopkins on most of his Week 6 routes. Hopkins should be downgraded, and look for Will Fuller V (vs. Phillip Gaines) and Keke Coutee (vs. Taron Johnson) to pick up the slack. Read more.
Houston Texans 20, Buffalo Bills 16
from: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000972668/article/nfl-week-6-game-picks-patriots-over-chiefs-cowboys-top-jags
Could the pesky Bills make it two wins in a row? Why not? They aren’t much more lowly than the Texans, who eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeked their way to two straight overtime victories. Let’s say this: If Sean McDermott has a fourth down on his side of the field in OT, he probably won’t go for it. However, if he faces a fourth-and-1 when he’s nearly in field-goal range in overtime, he’s not gonna punt and then stand there and clap. Nope, Chris Ivory will be chugging it up in there. Which might be the question here: Will Houston have enough oomph after playing 10 quarters in two weeks? They had better. Trusting Deshaun Watson to play even better this week. Quarterback is the decisive advantage for Houston in this game.
Bears (3-1) at Dolphins (3-2): 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Point spread: CHI -3 | Matchup quality: 34.6 (of 100)
Jeff Dickerson’s pick: The Dolphins are in desperation mode after losing two straight, but they are going to have a hard time moving the ball against the Bears’ defense, which leads the league in fewest rushing yards allowed (64.0 per game). The Bears also average 4.5 sacks per game — best in the NFL. The Dolphins have injuries on their offensive line, and Ryan Tannehill struggles with ball security. Look for the Bears to win three in a row for the first time since the start of the 2013 season. Bears 27, Dolphins 17
Cameron Wolfe’s pick: Miami hasn’t lost at home yet, but there isn’t much reason for confidence that it will keep the streak going. It’s going to be a nightmare holding off Khalil Mack and the Bears’ front, and the Dolphins’ banged-up line will force them to rely on their short passing game. Tannehill has led Miami to just 10 points over his past 21 drives (two games), and it’s going to be even tougher against arguably the NFL’s best defense. Bears 20, Dolphins 13
FPI win projection: CHI, 63.7 percent. Not only do the Bears have the most efficient defense thus far, they are doing it without having to blitz to get sacks. The Bears have the lowest rate of sending five or more pass-rushers while sacking the opposing QB on over 11 percent of dropbacks.
What to watch for in fantasy: It should be tough sledding for Kenyan Drakeagainst the Bears’ defense, which ranks first in KC Joyner’s GBR (27.1), GBYPA (6.2) and GBP (1.7) metrics and in rush defense. Read more.
Chicago Bears 25, Miami Dolphins 17
The Bears come off the bye rested and hopefully not flat; otherwise, they could become the NFC’s version of the Dolphins, who have dropped two straight after winning three in a row to open the season. Miami’s passing offense has been nothing but offensive the last two weeks, with 116 and 169 yards in those games. That’s what Bob Griese used to throw for when Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris plowed for 250 yards. So, with that as a backdrop, what better opponent to play than Khalil Mack and a Chicago defense ranked second in the league? This game is in Miami, so the Dolphins have a chance, but with tackle Laremy Tunsil in the concussion protocol, this is the wrong defense and wrong pass rusher to face.
Colts (1-4) at Jets (2-3): 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Point spread: NYJ -2.5 | Matchup quality: 29.2 (of 100)
Mike Wells’ pick: The Jets are coming off a 344-yard rushing performance against Denver in Week 5. The Colts are 18th in the NFL in stopping the run, giving up 106.8 yards a game. Andrew Luck heads into Sunday leading the NFL in passing attempts (245) and completions (163). The Colts have had a chance to win each game in the fourth quarter in all four losses this season. This will be a close one, too, with the Colts finding a way to pull it out. Colts 34, Jets 30
Rich Cimini’s pick: The Jets are trying to win back-to-back games for the first time since last October. Robby Anderson says this game “will define us as a team.” Translation: They’re in trouble if they can’t beat a 1-4 team at home. The Jets should prevail as long as rookie Sam Darnold remains patient against the Colts’ Tampa 2 defense. Jets 24, Colts 23
FPI win projection: IND, 50.4 percent. After Week 3, Luck’s average pass was traveling just under 5.5 yards downfield, but in his past two games, it has jumped up to 8.4 yards, much closer to his career average of 8.6 yards.
What to watch for in fantasy: The Colts’ defense has the 12th-highest pressure rate and sixth-highest sack rate in the league. Darnold has completed just 42 percent of his passes with a paltry 1.55 yards per dropback when pressured, rates that rank well below league average. This makes the Colts D/ST an intriguing Week 6 streamer. Read more.
New York Jets 26, Indianapolis Colts 24
Another matchup with a robust legacy, Andrew Luck will try to do it by himself on the Eastern Seaboard again. If T.Y. Hilton (chest, hamstring) is a go, Indy owns a great chance. (UPDATE: The Coltsannounced on Friday that Hilton has been ruled out of Sunday’s game.) Luck has been playing well, damn the torpedoes (i.e., guys getting hurt, receivers dropping the ball, poor protection). He’s also leading the league in both passing attempts and completions. So after all that worrying about Luck’s shoulder, let’s hope it doesn’t fall off. For his part, Sam Darnold has taken small steps forward, too. Although not recovering from major surgery, a la his counterpart, Darnold endured a few rough weeks after a quick start to the season in Detroit. Central to the outcome of this old AFC East rivalry will be the running game — the Jets stampeded the Broncos last week to the tune of 323 yards. The Colts can barely trot out of their own backfield. In order for Indy to prevail, Nyheim Hines must be more than the James White for this offense. He needs to contribute on the ground, too.
Chiefs (5-0) at Patriots (3-2): 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Point spread: NE -3.5 | Matchup quality: 72.1 (of 100)
Adam Teicher’s pick: The Chiefs scored 83 points in their past two regular-season matchups with the Patriots, and now with Patrick Mahomes have even more offensive capability. They also know how to defend Tom Brady, who has one touchdown pass, two interceptions and a passer rating of 66.1 in those two games. Look for these trends to continue. Chiefs 33, Patriots 28
Mike Reiss’ pick: History says the Patriots should be in a good place, as under-25 starting quarterbacks are a combined 0-23 on the road in the regular season against New England since 2001. Tom Brady (41) is 18 years, 45 days older than Patrick Mahomes (23), which according to Elias Sports Bureau research makes this the largest age difference between opposing starting quarterbacks since Matt Hasselbeck faced Jameis Winston in 2015 (they were 18 years, 103 days apart). The Patriots should be able to move the ball and score points on the Chiefs’ defense. Patriots 41, Chiefs 27
FPI win projection: NE, 66.6 percent. This game has the highest FPI matchup quality of the week and could go a long way toward determining who gets the top AFC seed in the playoffs. The Chiefs currently have a 51 percent chance to earn the top seed, and that would increase to 71 percent with a win on Sunday, according to FPI. A Patriots win would increase their chances from 18 percent to 26 percent, while a loss would drop them to just 3 percent.
What to watch for in fantasy: Bill Belichick will use the Pats’ newfound blocking prowess to ruthlessly exploit the Chiefs’ rushing defense, which ranks 32nd in rushing yards allowed before first defensive contact (YBCT, 3.4), GBR (55.6) and GBP (4.6). That’s good news for Sony Michel and James White. Read more.
New England Patriots 34, Kansas City Chiefs 30
Patrick Mahomes will have a chance to strut his already mature game in front of a national audience once again in what should be a gem of a Sunday-nighter. Tom Brady should go toe-to-toe, er, arm-to-arm with the Chiefs sophomore QB. With Julian Edelman back, Josh Gordonpicking up the offense and Sony Michelproviding at least the threat of balance, we’re staring at an explosive matchup … on paper, anyway. Justin Houston’s likely absence makes it more so, as Brady will be able to pat, pat and pat the ball some more until somebody breaks open. Kansas City’s pass rush is oft-absentee, and I’m not talking about ballots. Yes, they have accumulated a healthy number of sacks, but nobody is throwing the ball more than the Chiefs‘ opponents (well, except for Andrew Luck). That’s why involving Kareem Hunt early and often makes sense, much like last year’s kickoff game. In case you don’t remember …
Luciano’s Picks
Last week 2-1, Season total 9-6
Bills @ Texans: 17-14
Bills are not your conventional NFL team these days, but I have to say one thing…..opponents are playing down to them and that is huge. This game features two teams, one of which is home and scores a lot, and the other scores little period! However, Team at home has a QB that is trying to be the hero of last year and he is as banged up as you can be. The Texans have no run game right now, no QB (Weeden SUCKS!). Bills will shock the world and me, and get to 3-3. BILLS WIN! Its time to get a new HC in Houston, this dude is becoming the Marvin Lewis of modern football!
Bears @ Dolphins: 30-17
Man this Dolphins team, the one all were ready to have as the new AFCE champions just two weeks ago? They suck! Tannehill, the perennial rookie is not a leader! Regardless of excuses and hopes, sooner or later he has to lead and execute, he has NOT! Gase watch is on!!! The Bears are way better than most believe, because paying a ton for one player on D has paid off! The O is actually beginning to resemble the KC Chiefs, Bears will overrun the team from Down/Under! Bears are better everywhere (yea, year 2 rookie>>>>year 7 rookie too!), including HC!
Colts @ Jets: 20-27
Andrew Luck is back, but he has zero weapons to work with (where is TY????). Jets D has played with an edge, and Darnold will do enough to win. Jets OL, currently best in this weak division will protect rookie enough to execute. Crowd support will not help traveling Baltimore team, I mean Indy. Jets win!
Chiefs @ Patriots: 34-27
The days the Patriots simply overpowered and outscored opponents are over. The home team will not be able to keep up with high powered O. This KC HC is not at all in awe of BB and he will outwit him. This KC team is banged up big time on D, however, this Patriots team is not what we have grown accustomed to.
Notes: This division will see three teams at 3-3 by end of day Sunday!!!
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