As promised in an earlier article i wrote, here is my explanation as to why i think the Bengals will be Super Bowl contenders this year. Now keep in mind that this is a theory based on historical facts and records observation, so yes, a scientific and un-scientific approach to my prediction and here it goes:
Last season the Carolina Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals where playoff teams, both earning home games and were “one and done”. But if we look a little deeper and a bot farther back we see that both of these teams since 2010 are the only to have increased their win totals over the last three seasons.
The Panthers only won two games back in 2010, in 2011 the number increased to six, in 2012 they added another and by 2013 they jumped to five more victories. The Bengals were also swirling around the bottom of their division with only four wins in 2010, by 2011 they managed to increase it to none and then preceded to add one more each of their last two seasons.
In the NFL, only two other teams have managed to increase their total wins in each of the last two seasons (2012-2013): The Miami Dolphins, jumping one from six (2011) to seven (2012) and then eight last season. The newly crowned Super Bowl champs, Seattle Seahawks, came away with a trophy and 13 total wins in 2013 after having 11 in 2012 and a mere seven on 2011.
The downside to the statistics here concern past Super Bowl champs in the Ravens and Packers. Both those teams are the only two in the NFL that has seen their win totals decrease over the last two seasons. The Ravens went from a 12 win season back in 2011 to 10 in 2012 and another drop to 8 in 2013. The Packers had the biggest drop out of the two with 15 wins in 2011, eleven in 2012 and just eight total wins last year.
Now when we look at last seasons standings, 14 teams have increased their total wins from the previous year, eight came away as a wash with identical wins from 2012 to 2013, and a total of ten teams dropped their win totals last year from the previous.
Biggest Increase in Wins From 2012 to 2013
| Team | 2012 WINS | 2013 WINS | TOTAL WIN INCREASE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 12 | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| San Diego Chargers | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 13 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 11 | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 6 | 7 | 1 |
Biggest Decrease in Wins From 2012 to 2013
Team 2012 WINS 2013 WINS TOTAL WIN DECREASE
Houston Texans 12 2 10
Atlanta Falcons 13 4 9
Washington Redskins 10 3 7
Minnesota Vikings 10 5 5
Green Bay Packers 11 8 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 4 3
Baltimore Ravens 10 8 2
Chicago Bears 10 8 2
New York Giants 9 7 2
Cleveland Browns 5 4 1
(Teams not listed in the two lists above had the same number of wins in 2013 as in 2012)
So if we follow the logic, a team that increases their win total on a consistent basis gets into the Super Bowl and as we have seen recently, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are those such teams. Both the Carolina Panthers and the Cincinnati Bengals seem to be experiencing such patterns quickly moving up the ranks the past three seasons so i am not too far off in my prediction. And on the other side of the coin, the previous Super Bowl champs seem to decline post trophy award. Yes, my prediction is a “way to early” one but i have statistics to back me up a bit, but in the end, it is still the NFL and you never really know what will happen.
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